ناغورني قره باغ : هل ستقاتل إيران دفاعا عن الأرمن
تحت العنوان أعلاه، كتب ألكسندر سيتنيكوف، في “سفوبودنايا بريسا”، حول كون المعركة للسيطرة على قره باغ أخطر على إيران مما على أرمينيا.
وجاء في المقال: أعلن الرئيس الإيراني حسن روحاني، في اجتماع لمجلس الوزراء الإيراني، في السابع من أكتوبر، أن الصراع العسكري الحالي في ناغورني قره باغ يهدد بحرب كبيرة في المنطقة. كما صرح بأنه لن يتسامح مع “أي دولة ترسل إرهابيين إلى حدود إيران تحت أي ذريعة”.
التلميح، أكثر من واضح: إيران تهدد أذربيجان وتركيا، حيث تتحدث مصادر دولية مختلفة، أكثر فأكثر، عن مشاركة مقاتلين أتراك إلى جانب أذربيجان في معركة أرتساخ.
على الأرجح، سوف يطول أمد الصراع الحالي في ناغورني قره باغ، حيث سيُنظر إلى وقف إطلاق النار بوصفة هزيمة أخرى لباكو ونصرا لا جدال فيه ليريفان، التي تمكنت من الدفاع عن استقلال أرتساخ. ومع ذلك، فإن الحرب الطويلة، خاصة إذا نجح الأذربيجانيون فيها، تعد السيناريو الأكثر سلبية بالنسبة لطهران. هذا الوضع، سوف يصب في مصلحة أنصار “عموم الترك”، الذين ينازلهم الفرس منذ أكثر من ألف عام.
أقرأ أيضاً : عقب اتفاق وقف إطلاق النار أذربيجان تقصف إقليم ناغورني قره باغ
ففي إيران، يبلغ عدد الجالية التركية، التي تضم الأذربيجانيين، 30 مليون نسمة، أو 40% من السكان. بالطبع، طهران تخشى بشدة تطور النزعة القومية الأذربيجانية، إلى درجة أنهم لا يدرسون في إيران سوى اللغة الفارسية، وفي الواقع، حتى المدارس الأذربيجانية التركية الخاصة تم حظرها هناك.
هذا كله، أشبه بقنبلة موقوتة يمكن أن تنفجر بسبب نزاع ناغورني قره باغ
وكما كتبت صحيفة “ذا هيل” الأمريكية، فهناك اليوم “وضع غير عادي في العلاقات الدولية، حيث تتطابق مصالح الجمهورية الإسلامية مع مصالح دولة مسيحية على حساب دولة مسلمة أخرى”.
الواقع، أن الوضع في القوقاز شديد التداخل. ولكن ما يمكن للأرمن أن يكونوا واثقين منه هو أن أحدا، لا الأذربيجانيين ولا الأتراك ولا الإيرانيين، سوف يهاجمون أرمينيا نفسها. فروسيا لن تسمح بذلك.
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